Abstract
BACKGROUND: The male Canadian population is aging and more men will be seeking medical care for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). We examined the projected increase in older Canadian males between 2005 and 2018 to evaluate urologic health-care needs. METHODS: We used Statistics Canada population projections to derive predictions of the male population aged 50 or more from 2005 to 2018 and results from the Olmsted County Study of Urinary Symptoms to estimate numbers of males aged >/=50 with moderate to severe lower urinary tract symptoms (msLUTS) in the same period. Data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information were used to estimate the number of urologists in 2018. RESULTS: The number of Canadian men aged >/=50 is projected to rise between 2005 and 2018 by 39.5% and the number with msLUTS by 41.3%. However, the number of practicing urologists in Canada in 2018 is likely to be similar to the 584 practicing in 2007. An increase in the number of urologists proportional to the increase in men aged >/=50 with msLUTS would require 799 urologists in 2018. INTERPRETATION: Little opportunity exists to expand the number of trainees in urology. Other alternatives must be sought to deal with increased numbers of older men with msLUTS. Initial management of BPH has moved towards being a responsibility of primary care physicians, but they appear to view BPH as a quality-of-life issue. It is crucial that urologists work closely with primary care physicians to ensure that the management of LUTS progression is optimized.