Abstract
Agriculture is one of the largest threats to global biodiversity. However, most studies have focused only on the direct effects of agriculture on biodiversity, and few have addressed the indirect effects, potentially over or under-estimating the overall impacts of agriculture on biodiversity. The indirect effect is the response not to the agricultural cover types or operations per se, but instead, to the way that agriculture influences the extent and configuration of different types of natural land cover in the landscape. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to evaluate the direct, indirect, and total effects of agriculture on species richness of three bird guilds: forest birds, shrub-edge birds, and open country birds. We found that forest bird richness was driven by the negative indirect effect of cropland via forest loss. Shrub-edge and open country bird richness increased with the amount of agriculture land covers; however, importantly, we found negative indirect effects of agriculture on both guilds via a reduction in more natural land covers. This latter result highlights how we would have over-estimated the positive effects of agriculture on shrub-edge and open country bird richness had we not measured both direct and indirect effects (i.e., the total effect size is less than the direct effect size). Overall, our results suggest that a bird-friendly agricultural landscape in our region would have forest that is configured to maximize forest edge, and a high proportion of perennial forage within the agricultural portion of the landscape. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10531-023-02559-1.