Abstract
BACKGROUND: This study aimed at developing and validating a risk score to predict in-stent restenosis (ISR) in patients with premature acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stent (DES). METHODS: This was a two-center retrospective study. A total of 2185 patients firstly diagnosed with premature AMI (age ≥18 years and <55 years in men, <65 years in women) from Xinjiang cohort were retrospectively analyzed. After filtering by exclusion criteria, patients were randomly divided into training cohort (n = 434) and internal validation cohort (n = 186) at a 7:3 ratio. Several candidate variables associated with ISR in the training cohort were assessed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression analysis. The ISR risk nomogram score based on the superior predictors was finally developed, and then validated in the internal validation cohort and in an independent Chengdu external validation cohort (n = 192). The higher total nomogram score, the greater the ISR risk. RESULTS: The eight variables in the final risk nomogram score, cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) score included age, diabetes mellitus (DM), body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), stent in left anterior descending coronary artery, minimum stent diameter <3 mm. The areas under the curve (AUC) and C-statistics [training cohort: 0.834 (95%CI: 0.787 to 0.882); internal validation cohort: 0.852 (95%CI: 0.784 to 0.921); Chengdu external validation cohort: 0.787 (95%CI: 0.692 to 0.882), respectively)] demonstrated the good discrimination of the CKM score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ(2) = 7.86, P = 0.448; χ(2) = 5.17, P = 0.740; χ(2) = 6.35, P = 0.608, respectively) and the calibration curve confirmed the good calibration of the CKM score. Decision curve analysis (DCA) testified the clinical net benefit of the CKM score in the training and validation cohort. CONCLUSION: This study provided a well-developed and validated risk nomogram score, the CKM score to predict ISR in patients with premature AMI undergoing PCI with DES. Given that these variables are readily available and practical, the CKM score should be widely adopted for individualized assessment and management of premature AMI.