Smooth multi-period forecasting with application to prediction of COVID-19 cases

平滑多期预测及其在新冠肺炎病例预测中的应用

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Abstract

Forecasting methodologies have always attracted a lot of attention and have become an especially hot topic since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we consider the problem of multi-period forecasting that aims to predict several horizons at once. We propose a novel approach that forces the prediction to be "smooth" across horizons and apply it to two tasks: point estimation via regression and interval prediction via quantile regression. This methodology was developed for real-time distributed COVID-19 forecasting. We illustrate the proposed technique with the CovidCast dataset as well as a small simulation example.

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