Abstract
Electric vehicles are pivotal for global climate solutions, particularly in emerging markets like Africa. Despite the continent's clean energy potential, electric vehicle adoption faces unique challenges due to inefficiencies and reliability issues of distribution power grids. Here, we analyze the impacts of expanding electric vehicle fleets-private, commercial, and paratransit-on Nairobi's power grid. We simulate traffic patterns, charging behaviors, and transformer utilization using local mobility data. Our results show that while electric commercial and paratransit fleets may improve power system efficiency, widespread private EV adoption could significantly strain the grid, increasing peak loads and transformer aging. Smart charging strategies could mitigate these issues, reducing potential transformer replacement costs by up to 40%. Our study highlights the importance of tailored demand management and infrastructure planning to support EV growth in African cities, providing critical insights for policymakers, utilities, and transport planners to facilitate sustainable electric mobility transitions.