Predicting gene-level sensitivity to JAK-STAT signaling perturbation using a mechanistic-to-machine learning framework.

The Janus kinase (JAK)-signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) pathway integrates complex cytokine signals via a limited number of molecular components, inspiring numerous efforts to clarify the diversity and specificity of STAT transcription factor function. We developed a computational framework to make global cytokine-induced gene predictions from STAT phosphorylation dynamics, modeling macrophage responses to interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-10, which signal through common STATs, but with distinct temporal dynamics and contrasting functions. Our mechanistic-to-machine learning model identified cytokine-specific genes associated with late pSTAT3 time frames and a preferential pSTAT1 reduction upon JAK2 inhibition. We predicted and validated the impact of JAK2 inhibition on gene expression, identifying genes that were sensitive or insensitive to JAK2 variation. Thus, we successfully linked STAT signaling dynamics to gene expression to support future efforts targeting pathology-associated STAT-driven gene sets. This serves as a first step in developing multi-level prediction models to understand and perturb gene expression outputs from signaling systems. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.