OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was an independent predictor of 1-year remission and 2-year rapid progression of erosion for patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. Thus, OPG/TRAIL ratio could be included in matrix prediction scores to predict rapid radiographic progression. Further confirmation in an independent cohort is warranted.

OPG and TRAIL serum concentrations were assessed in the ESPOIR cohort patients. Patients with definite RA were included in this study. Patients were excluded if they had high erosion score at baseline (>90(th) percentile) or received biological therapy during the first 2 years of follow-up. Data were analyzed by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression to predict 1-year DAS28 remission and 2-year radiographic disease progression.

On univariate analysis of 399 patients, OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was significantly lower in patients with than without remission at 1 year (p = 0.015). On multivariate logistic regression including age, gender, body mass index and DAS28, low OPG/TRAIL ratio was independently associated with remission at 1 year (odds ratio 1.68 [95 % confidence interval 1.01-2.79]). On univariate analysis, high OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was associated with rapid progression of erosion at 2 years (p = 0.041), and on multivariate logistic regression including age, anti-citrullinated protein antibody positivity and C-reactive protein level, OPG/TRAIL ratio independently predicted rapid progression of erosion at 2 years. Conclusions: OPG/TRAIL ratio at baseline was an independent predictor of 1-year remission and 2-year rapid progression of erosion for patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. Thus, OPG/TRAIL ratio could be included in matrix prediction scores to predict rapid radiographic progression. Further confirmation in an independent cohort is warranted.