Ultraviolet-B (UV-B, 280-315 nm) radiation has been known as an elicitor to enhance bioactive compound contents in plants. However, unpredictable yield is an obstacle to the application of UV-B radiation to controlled environments such as plant factories. A typical three-dimensional (3D) plant structure causes uneven UV-B exposure with leaf position and age-dependent sensitivity to UV-B radiation. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for predicting phenolic accumulation in kale (Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala) according to UV-B radiation interception and growth stage. The plants grown under a plant factory module were exposed to UV-B radiation from UV-B light-emitting diodes with a peak at 310 nm for 6 or 12 h at 23, 30, and 38 days after transplanting. The spatial distribution of UV-B radiation interception in the plants was quantified using ray-tracing simulation with a 3D-scanned plant model. Total phenolic content (TPC), total flavonoid content (TFC), total anthocyanin content (TAC), UV-B absorbing pigment content (UAPC), and the antioxidant capacity were significantly higher in UV-B-exposed leaves. Daily UV-B energy absorbed by leaves and developmental age was used to develop stepwise multiple linear regression models for the TPC, TFC, TAC, and UAPC at each growth stage. The newly developed models accurately predicted the TPC, TFC, TAC, and UAPC in individual leaves with R 2 > 0.78 and normalized root mean squared errors of approximately 30% in test data, across the three growth stages. The UV-B energy yields for TPC, TFC, and TAC were the highest in the intermediate leaves, while those for UAPC were the highest in young leaves at the last stage. To the best of our knowledge, this study proposed the first statistical models for estimating UV-B-induced phenolic contents in plant structure. These results provided the fundamental data and models required for the optimization process. This approach can save the experimental time and cost required to optimize the control of UV-B radiation.