Low serum adiponectin is a predictor of progressing to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The association between adiponectin and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been studied before, but most of the studies are cross-sectional and cannot prove a causal link. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively investigate the relationship between serum adiponectin levels and the incidence of NAFLD in 3 years. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A total of 1325 subjects aged 40 to 70 from the Chongming District of Shanghai, China, were included. All of them did not have fatty liver according to the liver ultrasound examination at entry; alcohol abuse and hepatitis were also excluded. Serum adiponectin levels and other indices were measured at baseline. After 3 years of follow-up, hepatic ultrasound examination was performed on each participant again to detect fatty liver. RESULTS: The serum adiponectin levels at entry were significantly lower in subjects who developed NAFLD compared with those who did not develop NAFLD after 3 years (1.75 ± 0.89 ug/mL vs 2.37 ± 1.01 ug/mL, P < 0.001). After multiple adjustments, the highest odds ratios for NAFLD were in the second adiponectin quartile, the adjusted ORs were 1.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 2.86) compared with those in the highest quartile. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showing variables at entry independently associated with NAFLD after 3 years was adiponectin (P < 0.01), sex (P < 0.01), BMI (P < 0.001), insulin (P < 0.001), HOMA-IR (P < 0.01), GGT (P = 0.001), TG (P < 0.001), and WBC (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Lower serum adiponectin level is a predictor of NAFLD among middle-aged and elderly subjects.