Correlates of SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections in Kidney Transplant Recipients Following a Third SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Dose.

BACKGROUND: Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) exhibit a significantly diminished immune response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines compared with the general population, primarily due to ongoing immunosuppressive therapy. This study evaluated the immunogenicity of a third SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine dose in KTRs and assessed the association between antibody response and protection against SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection. Additionally, the clinical and immunological correlates of post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infection were examined. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 135 KTRs received a third vaccine dose approximately six months following the second dose. Plasma samples were collected at baseline (pre-vaccination), six months after the second dose, and six weeks following the third dose. Humoral responses were assessed using SARS-CoV-2-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers and virus neutralization assays against wild-type (WT) and viral strains, including multiple Omicron sub-lineages. RESULTS: After the third vaccine dose, 74% of the KTRs had detectable SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies, compared with 48% following the second dose. The mean IgG titers increased approximately ten-fold post-booster. Despite this increase, neutralizing activity against the Omicron variants remained significantly lower than that against the WT strain. KTRs who subsequently experienced a SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection demonstrated reduced neutralizing antibody activity across all variants tested. Additionally, individuals receiving triple immunosuppressive therapy had a significantly higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection compared with those on dual or monotherapy. A multivariate machine learning analysis identified age and neutralizing activity against WT, Delta, and Omicron BA.2 as the most robust correlates of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection. CONCLUSIONS: A third SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine dose significantly improves SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG levels in KTRs; however, the neutralizing response against Omicron variants remains suboptimal. Diminished neutralizing capacity and intensified immunosuppression are key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection in this immunocompromised population.