Accurate prediction of biliary atresia with an integrated model using MMP-7 levels and bile acids

使用 MMP-7 水平和胆汁酸的综合模型准确预测胆道闭锁

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作者:Yi-Jiang Han, Shu-Qi Hu, Jin-Hang Zhu, Xiao Cai, Deng-Ming Lai, Bao-Hai Chen, Kun Zhu, Qiao Tong, Xin-Rui Zhou, Jia-Le Deng, Jin-Fa Tou, Zhuo Fang, Li-Zhong Du

Background

Biliary atresia (BA) is a rare fatal liver disease in children, and the

Conclusion

The innovative integrated models based on a large number of indicators provide a noninvasive and cost-effective approach for accurately diagnosing BA in children. Video Abstract (MP4 142103 KB).

Methods

We determined serum levels of matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7), the

Results

Our findings demonstrated that MMP-7 expression levels, as well as the results of four liver tests and levels of ten bile acids, were significantly different between 86 BA and 59 non-BA patients (P < 0.05). The computational prediction model revealed that MMP-7 levels alone had a higher predictive accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.966, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.942, 0.989] than liver test results and bile acid levels. The AUC was 0.890 (95% CI 0.837, 0.943) for liver test results and 0.825 (95% CI 0.758, 0.892) for bile acid levels. Furthermore, bile levels had a higher contribution to enhancing the predictive accuracy of MMP-7 levels (AUC = 0.976, 95% CI 0.953, 1.000) than liver test results. The AUC was 0.983 (95% CI 0.962, 1.000) for MMP-7 levels combined with liver test results and bile acid levels. In addition, we found that MMP-7 levels were highly correlated with gamma-glutamyl transferase levels and the liver fibrosis score.

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