Time series forecasting of bed occupancy in mental health facilities in India using machine learning.

Machine learning models are vital for forecasting and optimizing healthcare parameters, especially in the context of rising mental health issues in India and globally. With increasing demand for mental health services, effective resource management, like bed occupancy forecasting, is crucial to ensure proper patient care and reduce the burden on healthcare facilities. This study applies six machine learning models, namely Support Vector Regression, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Gradient Boosting, and Decision Tree, to forecast weekly bed occupancy of the second largest mental hospital in India, using data from 2008 to 2024. Accuracy of models were evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Diebold-Mariano test for assessing differences in predictive performance. Further, we forecast the bed occupancy, providing crucial insights for healthcare administrators in capacity planning and resource allocation, supporting data-driven decisions and enhancing the quality of mental health services in India.