Exploring urban compactness impact on carbon emissions from energy consumption: A township-level case study of Hangzhou, China.

Given that cities are the major contributors to carbon emissions, studying urban compactness (UC) and its impact on carbon emissions from energy consumption (CEECs) is crucial. This study calculated Hangzhou's township-level urban UC and CEECs using a hybrid subjective-objective weighted regression model on integrated panel datasets. By employing a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the UC-CEEC relationship from 2006 to 2019 was uncovered. The results indicated an overall increase in UC, with significant variations across different counties. CEECs were higher in the central region, shifting eastward due to distinct urban development levels and policies. Moreover, the effects of various UC factors exhibited significant spatiotemporal inconsistency, with the impact intensity gradually diminishing. Additionally, the explanatory power of these factors declined and diversified over time. These findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between UC and CEECs within the complex metropolitan environment and the importance of regulating their coordinated development. The research not only offers a more scientific approach to managing the growth of county-level cities and supporting balanced urbanization but also presents policy recommendations.