High-resolution time-dependent probabilistic assessment of the hydraulic performance for historic coastal structures: application to Luarca Breakwater.

Historic coastal structures have played a key role in small- to medium-size ports, being the driving force for the local development of coastal communities. Because coastal managers require reliable risk-based analysis of the whole life cycle of these coastal structures, previous lifetimes should be studied. This is a differentiating factor with respect to the newly built breakwaters. For this reason, in this work, a methodology for assessing how the hydraulic performance of an expired lifetime has evolved over the years is presented. It is performed following a probabilistic approach due to the uncertainty related to both the involved variables (wave climate, geometrical and structural breakwater variables) and the hydraulic response of the structure. The first ones are characterized by reliable probability distribution functions. The second ones are characterized by reliable formulae for the analysis of the hydraulic response. However, their non-conventional designs located in shallow-water locations require site-dependent formulae. To overcome this problem, a novel methodology to apply CFD numerical models is presented. Finally, it is integrated in a high-resolution time-dependent probabilistic methodology which takes into account the stochastic behaviour of all the involved variables, coastal and structural processes with a good uncertainty level. This article is part of the theme issue 'Environmental loading of heritage structures'.