Regional Seismic Information Entropy to Detect Earthquake Activation Precursors.

A method is presented to detect earthquake precursors from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. The Regional Entropy of Seismic Information (RESI) is an index that represents the average influence of an earthquake in a target region on the diversity of clusters to which earthquake foci are distributed. Based on a simple qualitative model of the dynamics of land crust, it is hypothesized that the saturation that occurs after an increase in RESI precedes the activation of earthquakes. This hypothesis is validated by the earthquake catalog. This temporal change was found to correlate with the activation of earthquakes in Japanese regions one to two years ahead of the real activation, more reliably than the compared baseline methods.