A differential equation model for the dynamics of youth gambling.

OBJECTIVES: We examine the dynamics of gambling among young people aged 16-24 years, how prevalence rates of at-risk gambling and problem gambling change as adolescents enter young adulthood, and prevention and control strategies. METHODS: A simple epidemiological model is created using ordinary nonlinear differential equations, and a threshold condition that spreads gambling is identified through stability analysis. We estimate all the model parameters using a longitudinal prevalence study by Winters, Stinchfield, and Botzet to run numerical simulations. Parameters to which the system is most sensitive are isolated using sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Problem gambling is endemic among young people, with a steady prevalence of approximately 4-5%. The prevalence of problem gambling is lower in young adults aged 18-24 years than in adolescents aged 16-18 years. At-risk gambling among young adults has increased. The parameters to which the system is most sensitive correspond to primary prevention. CONCLUSION: Prevention and control strategies for gambling should involve school education. A mathematical model that includes the effect of early exposure to gambling would be helpful if a longitudinal study can provide data in the future.