Seven confluence principles: a case study of standardized statistical analysis for 26 methods that assign net atomic charges in molecules.

This article studies two kinds of information extracted from statistical correlations between methods for assigning net atomic charges (NACs) in molecules. First, relative charge transfer magnitudes are quantified by performing instant least squares fitting (ILSF) on the NACs reported by Cho et al. (ChemPhysChem, 2020, 21, 688-696) across 26 methods applied to ∼2000 molecules. The Hirshfeld and Voronoi deformation density (VDD) methods had the smallest charge transfer magnitudes, while the quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) method had the largest charge transfer magnitude. Methods optimized to reproduce the molecular dipole moment (e.g., ACP, ADCH, CM5) have smaller charge transfer magnitudes than methods optimized to reproduce the molecular electrostatic potential (e.g., CHELPG, HLY, MK, RESP). Several methods had charge transfer magnitudes even larger than the electrostatic potential fitting group. Second, confluence between different charge assignment methods is quantified to identify which charge assignment method produces the best NAC values for predicting via linear correlations the results of 20 charge assignment methods having a complete basis set limit across the dataset of ∼2000 molecules. The DDEC6 NACs were the best such predictor of the entire dataset. Seven confluence principles are introduced explaining why confluent quantitative descriptors offer predictive advantages for modeling a broad range of physical properties and target applications. These confluence principles can be applied in various fields of scientific inquiry. A theory is derived showing confluence is better revealed by standardized statistical analysis (e.g., principal components analysis of the correlation matrix and standardized reversible linear regression) than by unstandardized statistical analysis. These confluence principles were used together with other key principles and the scientific method to make assigning atom-in-material properties non-arbitrary. The N@C(60) system provides an unambiguous and non-arbitrary falsifiable test of atomic population analysis methods. The HLY, ISA, MK, and RESP methods failed for this material.