Traces Of Laboratory Earthquake Nucleation In The Spectrum Of Ambient Noise.

The short-term forecast of earthquakes associated with fault rupture is a challenge in seismology and rock mechanics. The evolution of mechanical characteristics of a local fault segment may be encoded in the ambient noise, thus, converting the ambient noise to an efficient source of information about the fault stress-strain conditions. In laboratory experiments we investigate micro-vibrations of a block-fault system induced by weak external disturbances with the purpose of getting reliable evidence of how the system transits to the metastable state. We show that precursory changes of spectral characteristics of micro-vibrations are observed for the complete spectrum of failure modes. In the course of experiments we systematically change the properties of interface to perform the transition from stick-slip to steady sliding and observe the characteristics of micro-vibrations of the laboratory block-fault system. Detected were systematical alterations of the system natural frequency and those alterations were determined by the evolution of fault stiffness. The detected regularities suggest that the final stage of seismic event preparation can be revealed in analyzing the spectral characteristics of ambient noise. The detection of natural oscillations of a block-fault system can be a new useful tool to monitor active faults in real time.