Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years.

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作者:Liu Yu, Song Huiming, An Zhisheng, Li Qiang, Leavitt Steven W, Büntgen Ulf, Cai Qiufang, Liu Ruoshi, Fang Congxi, Sun Changfeng, Treydte Kerstin, Ren Meng, Mo Lidong, Song Yi, Cai Wenju, Zhang Quan, Zhou Weijian, Bräuning Achim, Grießinger Jussi, Chen Deliang, Linderholm Hans W, Sinha Ashish, Cheng Hai, Wang Lu, Lei Ying, Sun Junyan, Gong Wei, Li Xuxiang, Cui Linlin, Ning Liang, Wan Lingfeng, Crowther Thomas W, Zohner Constantin M
Given growing concerns about global climate change, it is critical to understand both historical and current shifts in the hydroclimate, particularly in regions critically entwined with global circulation. The Tibetan Plateau, the Earth's largest and highest plateau, is a nexus for global atmospheric processes, significantly influencing East Asian hydroclimate dynamics through the synergy of the Asian Monsoon and the Westerlies. Yet, understanding historical and recent hydroclimate fluctuations and their wide-ranging ecological and societal consequences remains challenging due to short instrumental observations and partly ambiguous proxy reconstructions. Here, we present a precisely-dated 3476-year precipitation reconstruction derived from tree-ring δ(18)O data on the Tibetan Plateau, representing one of the few multi-millennia-long annually-resolved terrestrial δ(18)O records to date. Our findings reveal that the 20(th) century drought extremes are severe within the past three millennia, and likely linked to the weakening of both the Asian Monsoon and Westerlies due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Additionally, our analyses identified three distinct stages (110 BC-AD 280, AD 330-770 and AD 950-1300) characterized by shifts toward arid hydroclimate conditions, corresponding to significant social unrest and dynasty collapses, which underscores the potential societal impacts of severe hydroclimatic shifts.

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