Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord lesion at neck level a systematic analysis of incidence, prevalence, YLDs with projections to 2046

颈椎脊髓损伤的全球、区域和国家负担:发病率、患病率、伤残调整寿命年(YLD)的系统分析及至2046年的预测

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Spinal cord lesion at neck level imposes significant global morbidity, yet cervical-specific burden analysis remains limited. METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data (1990-2021), we analyzed incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) across 204 countries/territories, stratified by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, GBD super regions, and countries. Age-period-cohort (APC) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected trends to 2046. RESULTS: In 2021, global incidence was 306,568 (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR] 3.78/100,000), prevalence 7.42 million (age-standardized prevalence rate [ASPR] 88.47/100,000), and YLDs 2.91 million (age-standardized YLDs rate [ASYLDR] 34.72/100,000). Males had higher burdens than females, with cases peaking at 45-64 years. Middle-SDI regions had the highest absolute cases (79,611 incidence), while high-SDI regions showed the highest age-standardized rates (ASRs) (ASIR 5.86/100,000). From 1990-2021, absolute cases rose, but ASRs declined. Projections predict rising absolute cases through 2046. CONCLUSION: This study reveals marked regional and demographic disparities in cervical spinal cord lesion burden. Targeted prevention and healthcare planning in high-burden regions are essential to address this global health challenge.

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