Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the global, regional and national burden of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (nrDMVD) from 1990 to 2021 using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021, focusing on trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The analysis evaluated disparities by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI). DESIGN: This was a systematic analysis leveraging GBD 2021 data and employing decomposition and frontier analyses to quantify the contributions of ageing, population growth and epidemiological transitions. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) and absolute case numbers were analysed across 204 countries and territories. SETTING: Global, regional and national data spanning 1990 to 2021, stratified by SDI quintiles (low to high), 21 GBD regions and age-sex groups. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals diagnosed with nrDMVD, with data representing global populations categorised by age, sex and SDI. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes included incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. Secondary outcomes encompassed age-standardised rates (ASR) (age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR)) and temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2021, there were 15.49 million prevalent cases (ASPR: 182.13 per 100 000 population) and 36 843 deaths (ASMR: 0.46 per 100 000 population) globally. From 1990 to 2021, ASRs for prevalence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly (estimated annual percentage change range: -0.17% to -0.31%), while absolute case numbers increased by 85% due to population ageing. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR (28.49 per 100 000) and ASPR (364.24 per 100 000), while low-SDI regions showed underdiagnosis. Sex disparities were pronounced, with higher ASIR (16.13 vs 11.38) and ASPR (385.09 vs 241.64) in females. Projections to 2050 indicated continued ASR declines, yet rising absolute cases. Frontier analysis identified Serbia, Georgia and high-SDI countries (eg, the Netherlands) as having the largest gaps between actual and achievable disease burden. CONCLUSIONS: Despite declining ASRs, nrDMVD remains a critical global health challenge, driven by ageing populations and regional inequalities. Targeted interventions addressing gender disparities, ageing-related healthcare and resource allocation in low-SDI regions are urgently needed to mitigate future burdens.