Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of high body mass index (BMI) contributes to an increased risk of various diseases. This study aimed to identify global disease burden trends associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts up to 2040. METHODS: Using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study, we analysed the number and ratio of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to high BMI. The data were analysed by sex, ages, socio-demographic index (SDI), world health organization (WHO) region, and disease level. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to predict high BMI-related disease burden up to 2040. RESULTS: In 2019, the global burden of disease due to high BMI was 1932.54 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1276.61, 2639.74), representing an increase of 0.18 (95% UI: 0.02, 0.42). Disease burden was consistently higher in males, middle-aged and older populations, particularly noting a narrowing gap between those aged 50-69 years and≥ 70 years in the forecast results until 2040. Additionally, regions with a middle SDI and the North Africa and Middle East WHO super-regions exhibited the highest disease burdens. Also, Cardiovascular disease ranked highest among diseases. CONCLUSION: The rising disease burden associated with high BMI highlights the need for targeted health policies focussing on older populations, low and middle-income countries, and major conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Addressing these trends requires an integrated, equity-focused approach to health planning and management to mitigate global impacts.