Abstract
OBJECTIVE: A comprehensive evaluation of the disease burden is essential for identifying effective strategies to address thyroid cancer. This study delineates the long-term global trends in thyroid cancer and its epidemiological characteristics. METHODS: Data on thyroid cancer from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 were utilized. The burden of thyroid cancer was assessed through measures of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Additionally, a global risk attribution analysis was conducted, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project the future global burden of thyroid cancer. RESULTS: In 2021, there were an estimated 2 million (95% UI: 1.8, 2.2) cases of thyroid cancer worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 23.1 (95% UI: 20.7, 25.6) per 100,000 individuals, reflecting a 55% increase since 1990. The global mortality from thyroid cancer in 2021 was 44,800 (95% UI: 39,900, 48,500), with an age-standardized rate of 0.5 per 100,000 people (95% UI: 0.5, 0.6), marking a 7% decrease since 1990. In the same year, the global total number of DALYs attributable to thyroid cancer was 1,246.5 thousand (95% UI: 1,094.4, 1,375.9), with an age-standardized rate of 14.6 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.8, 16.1), representing a 4.2% reduction compared to 1990. CONCLUSION: Over the past three decades, the age-standardized prevalence rate of thyroid cancer has increased, while the age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate have decreased. Significant variations in prevalence, morbidity, and mortality exist across regions and countries. SDI plays a crucial role in the development of thyroid cancer, which is expected to remain a major public health challenge in the future.