Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore predictors and construct a nomogram for risk stratification in primary extragastric mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma. METHODS: Extragastric MALT lymphoma cases newly diagnosed between November 2010 and April 2020 were assessed to construct a progression-free survival (PFS)-related nomogram. We also performed external validation of the nomogram in an independent cohort. RESULTS: We performed multivariate analyses of 174 patients from 3 hospitals who were included in the training cohort. Stage, hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) status, and Ki67 expression were significantly associated with PFS. These three factors were used to construct a nomogram, which was shown to have a C-index of 0.89. Two risk groups (low risk and high risk) were identified by the prognostic model. The 5-year PFS was 98.9% for the low-risk group and 69.3% for the high-risk group (p < 0.001). The overall survival (OS) could also be effectively distinguished by the nomogram, resulting in an OS of 100% for the low-risk group and 94.6% for the high-risk group (p = 0.01). These results were validated and confirmed in an independent cohort with 165 patients from another three hospitals. The 5-year PFS rates were 94.8% and 66.7% for the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). The 5-year OS rates were 97.9% and 88.4%, respectively (p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: The nomogram could well distinguish the prognosis of low- and high-risk patients with extragastric MALT lymphoma and is thus recommended for clinical use.