Abstract
PURPOSE: Using standard-of-care CT images obtained from patients with a diagnosis of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), we defined radiomics signatures predicting the sensitivity of tumors to nivolumab, docetaxel, and gefitinib. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively and analyzed retrospectively across multicenter clinical trials [nivolumab, n = 92, CheckMate017 (NCT01642004), CheckMate063 (NCT01721759); docetaxel, n = 50, CheckMate017; gefitinib, n = 46, (NCT00588445)]. Patients were randomized to training or validation cohorts using either a 4:1 ratio (nivolumab: 72T:20V) or a 2:1 ratio (docetaxel: 32T:18V; gefitinib: 31T:15V) to ensure an adequate sample size in the validation set. Radiomics signatures were derived from quantitative analysis of early tumor changes from baseline to first on-treatment assessment. For each patient, 1,160 radiomics features were extracted from the largest measurable lung lesion. Tumors were classified as treatment sensitive or insensitive; reference standard was median progression-free survival (NCT01642004, NCT01721759) or surgery (NCT00588445). Machine learning was implemented to select up to four features to develop a radiomics signature in the training datasets and applied to each patient in the validation datasets to classify treatment sensitivity. RESULTS: The radiomics signatures predicted treatment sensitivity in the validation dataset of each study group with AUC (95 confidence interval): nivolumab, 0.77 (0.55-1.00); docetaxel, 0.67 (0.37-0.96); and gefitinib, 0.82 (0.53-0.97). Using serial radiographic measurements, the magnitude of exponential increase in signature features deciphering tumor volume, invasion of tumor boundaries, or tumor spatial heterogeneity was associated with shorter overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics signatures predicted tumor sensitivity to treatment in patients with NSCLC, offering an approach that could enhance clinical decision-making to continue systemic therapies and forecast overall survival.