Abstract
PURPOSE: Prediction of spatially variant response to cancer therapies can inform risk-adaptive management within precision oncology. We developed the "Voxel Forecast" multiscale regression framework for predicting spatially variant tumor response to chemoradiotherapy on fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Twenty-five patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer, enrolled on the FLARE-RT phase II trial (NCT02773238), underwent FDG PET/CT imaging prior to (PETpre) and during week 3 (PETmid) of concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Voxel Forecast was designed to predict tumor voxel standardized uptake value (SUV) on PETmid from baseline patient-level and voxel-level covariates using a custom generalized least squares (GLS) algorithm. Matérn covariance matrices were fit to patient- specific empirical variograms of distance-dependent intervoxel correlation. Regression coefficients from variogram-based weights and corresponding standard errors were estimated using the jackknife technique. The framework was validated using statistical simulations of known spatially variant tumor response. Mean absolute prediction errors (MAEs) of Voxel Forecast models were calculated under leave-one-patient-out cross-validation. RESULTS: Patient-level forecasts resulted in tumor voxel SUV MAE on PETmid of 1.5 g/mL while combined patient- and voxel-level forecasts achieved lower MAE of 1.0 g/mL (P < 0.0001). PETpre voxel SUV was the most important predictor of PETmid voxel SUV. Patients with a greater percentage of under-responding tumor voxels were classified as PETmid nonresponders (P = 0.030) with worse overall survival prognosis (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Voxel Forecast multiscale regression provides a statistical framework to predict voxel-wise response patterns during therapy. Voxel Forecast can be extended to predict spatially variant response on multimodal quantitative imaging and may eventually guide optimized spatial-temporal dose distributions for precision cancer therapy.