Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Using linked cancer registry and administrative data to monitor, tumour, node and metastases (TNM) stage and survival from female breast cancer in Australia. METHOD: Analysis of 2000-2014 diagnoses with linked population-based data to investigate: (1) sociodemographic predictors of advanced stage (stages III and IV), using unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression; and (2) sociodemographic factors and stage as predictors of breast cancer survival using competing risk regression. DESIGN: Population-based registry cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 14 759 South Australian women diagnosed in 2000-2014. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Stage and survival. RESULTS: At diagnosis, 46% of women were classified as stage I, 39% as stage II, 12% as stage III and 4% as stage IV. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors, advanced stage was more common: (1) for ages <50 years; and although not statistically significant, for ages 80+ years; and (2) in women from socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Compared with 2000-2004 diagnoses, stage and sociodemographic adjusted risks (sub-HRs (SHRs)) of breast cancer death were lower in 2005-2009 (SHR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.83) and 2010-2015 (SHR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.67). Compared with stage I, the SHR was 3.87 (95% CI 3.32 to 4.53) for stage II, 10.87 (95% CI 9.22 to 12.81) for stage III, and 41.97 (95% CI 34.78 to 50.65) for stage IV. Women aged 70+ years at diagnosis and those living in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged areas were at elevated risk of breast cancer death, independent of stage and sociodemographic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Stage varied by age, diagnostic period and socioeconomic status, and was a stronger predictor of survival than other statistically significant sociodemographic predictors. Achieving earlier diagnosis outside the original BreastScreen target of 50-69 years (as applying <2014) and in residents of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas likely would increase cancer survival at a population level.