Six-year epidemiological dynamics of human respiratory syncytial virus infections in children in central China (2019-2024): pandemic suppression, 2023 resurgence, and immune debt effect

中国中部地区儿童人呼吸道合胞病毒感染的六年流行病学动态(2019-2024):大流行抑制、2023年疫情反弹及免疫债务效应

阅读:1

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory infections in children. COVID-19 NPIs significantly suppressed HRSV transmission. This study analyzed six-year epidemiological dynamics of pediatric HRSV infections in Henan Province, China, focusing on NPI suppression effects, the 2023 resurgence, and "Immune debt" impact. METHODS: We retrospectively collected respiratory specimens from 80,920 children with acute respiratory diseases at Henan Children's Hospital (2019-2024). HRSV was detected using RT-qPCR. Positivity rates were analyzed by year, season, and age group. RESULTS: During 2019-2024, HRSV positivity fluctuated markedly: 14.65% (2019), 16.34% (2021), 3.27% (2022 under strict NPIs), 21.47% (2023 post-NPIs), and 6.80% (2024). Interrupted time-series analysis indicated that NPI lifting in 2023 was associated with a significant surge in infection risk (OR = 668.77, 95% CI: 47.03-9509.28). Seasonal patterns shifted substantially, with the characteristic winter peak replaced by an off-season spring outbreak in April 2023 (57.41%). Multivariable logistic regression identified age as the strongest predictor, with infants <1 year having the highest risk (aOR = 9.02, 95% CI: 8.31-9.79) and a 4.91-fold higher positivity rate than school-aged children (22.98% vs. 4.68%; 95% CI: 4.59-5.25; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: NPIs dramatically affected HRSV epidemiology. The intense post-suppression rebound strongly supports the "Immune debt" theory-accumulation of susceptible children driving resurgence. Establishing year-round, multi-pathogen surveillance systems is crucial for post-pandemic public health challenges.

特别声明

1、本页面内容包含部分的内容是基于公开信息的合理引用;引用内容仅为补充信息,不代表本站立场。

2、若认为本页面引用内容涉及侵权,请及时与本站联系,我们将第一时间处理。

3、其他媒体/个人如需使用本页面原创内容,需注明“来源:[生知库]”并获得授权;使用引用内容的,需自行联系原作者获得许可。

4、投稿及合作请联系:info@biocloudy.com。