An immuno-epidemiological model for transient immune protection: A case study for viral respiratory infections

瞬时免疫保护的免疫流行病学模型:以病毒性呼吸道感染为例

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Abstract

The dynamics of infectious disease in a population critically involves both within-host pathogen replication and between host pathogen transmission. While modeling efforts have recently explored how within-host dynamics contribute to shaping population transmission, fewer have explored how ongoing circulation of an epidemic infectious disease can impact within-host immunological dynamics. We present a simple, influenza-inspired model that explores the potential for re-exposure during a single, ongoing outbreak to shape individual immune response and epidemiological potential in non-trivial ways. We show how even a simplified system can exhibit complex ongoing dynamics and sensitive thresholds in behavior. We also find epidemiological stochasticity likely plays a critical role in reinfection or in the maintenance of individual immunological protection over time.

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