Abstract
A quantitative systems pharmacology model for metastatic melanoma was developed for immuno-oncology with the goal of predicting efficacy of combination checkpoint therapy with pembrolizumab and ipilimumab. This literature-based model is developed at multiple scales: (i) tumor and immune cell interactions at a lesion level; (ii) multiple heterogeneous target lesions, nontarget lesion growth, and appearance of new metastatic lesion at a patient level; and (iii) interpatient differences at a population level. The model was calibrated to pembrolizumab and ipilimumab monotherapy in patients with melanoma from Robert et al., specifically, waterfall plot showing target lesion response and overall response rate (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors [RECIST] version 1.1), which additionally considers nontarget lesion growth and appearance of new metastatic lesions. We then used the model to predict waterfall and RECIST version 1.1 for combination treatment reported in Long et al. A key insight from this work was that nontarget lesions growth and appearance of new metastatic lesion contributed significantly to disease progression, despite reduction in target lesions. Further, the lesion level simulations of combination therapy show substantial efficacy in warm lesions (intermediary immunogenicity) but limited advantage of combination in both cold and hot lesions (low and high immunogenicity). Because many patients with metastatic disease are expected to have a mixture of these lesions, disease progression in such patients may be driven by a subset of cold lesions that are unresponsive to checkpoint inhibitors. These patients may benefit more from the combinations which include therapies to target cold lesions than double checkpoint inhibitors.