Abstract
BACKGROUND: Childhood obesity is a growing global concern and is associated with cardiometabolic comorbidities in adulthood. However, the association between childhood body size and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in late life remains to be investigated. We aimed to explore the association between childhood obesity and incident AMD and the underlying anatomical and physiobiological mechanisms. METHODS: We investigated the association between childhood body size and incident AMD using multivariable Cox regression models and its relation to retinal layer thickness using linear regression. We performed four-way decomposition mediation analyses to explore the underlying mechanism. Lastly, we used univariable Mendelian randomisation (UVMR) and multivariable Mendelian randomisation (MVMR) to evaluate and differentiate the causal effect of childhood and adulthood body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 5026 incident AMD cases occurred among 487 009 participants. Plumper childhood body size at age 10 conferred independent risk to incident AMD in later life (adjusted hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03, 1.24, P = 0.007) and was associated with photoreceptor outer segment layer thinning. Adulthood BMI mediated the association between childhood plumper body size and incident AMD (pure indirect effect = 33%; 95% CI = 9.9, 56.9, P = 0.05). Mediation analysis of adulthood physiobiological and immuno-metabolic function showed that 17 peripheral biomarkers of 7 categories significantly mediated the aforementioned pathway, with HbA1c and cystatin C showing the two largest effects. Mendelian randomisation suggested a potential causal association between childhood BMI and AMD (UVMR inverse variance weighted (IVW) odd ratio (OR) = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.09, 2.08, P = 0.013), independent of adulthood BMI (MVMR adulthood BMI-adjusted IVW OR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.61, P = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood obesity may be a causal risk factor for incident AMD in later life, partially mediated by persistent obesity and physiobiological memory. Prevention of retinal degenerative diseases should therefore begin in childhood, whereby children should be encouraged and supported to maintain a normal body size.