Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To analyze how stress due to COVID-19 affects adolescent problem behaviors via academic and adaptation stress, and the moderating role of academic attribution. METHODS: A survey via questionnaires among 1,012 middle and high school students. Academic attribution types were determined via latent profile analysis, and a moderated multiple mediation model was created. RESULTS: Five academic attribution subgroups were identified, showing distinct moderation of COVID-19 stress effects on adolescents’ internalizing and externalizing behaviors. The study disclosed radically distinct transmission mechanisms for internalizing and externalizing behaviors: internalizing behaviors displayed complete mediation via academic stress (51.61%) and stress stemming from adaptation (26.17%), with a 22.21% chain effect manifested, whereas externalizing behaviors displayed partial mediation with a significant direct effect (52.68%) beside indirect pathways (47.32%). Academic attribution profiles significantly modulated these stress transmission pathways. Extreme Attribution and High-Sensitive Types showed considerably elevated stress reactivity, while the Attribution Attenuation type displayed protective traits. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 stress impacts adolescent problem behaviors through mechanisms that are qualitatively disparate—full mediation for internalizing behaviors and partial mediation for externalizing behaviors—by means of academic and adaptation stress pathways, and academic attribution types act as an important moderator in these different pathways. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-026-26500-7.