Abstract
BACKGROUND: Associations of meteorological factors with allergic rhinitis (AR) have been examined in numerous prior research works, yet conclusions regarding these correlations remain inconsistent. METHODS: Eligible articles were identified from PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases by December 1, 2025. Five factors were analyzed: temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed. Random-effect models calculated pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Subgroup and sensitivity analysis explored heterogeneity, while publication bias was evaluated. RESULTS: Twenty-two observational studies involving 5,218,796 participants were included. For temperature, a 1 ℃ increase corresponded to a 14% elevated AR risk [OR (95%CI) = 1.14 (1.03–1.25)], whereas subgroup analyses uncovered more significant associations in temperate zones, high-quality studies and medical record-based outcomes. For humidity, a 1% increase in relative humidity was correlated with a 4% reduced AR risk [OR (95%CI) = 0.96 (0.94–0.99)], with more pronounced protective effects in subtropical regions, middle-income countries and medical record-based outcomes. A 10 mm increase in precipitation was correlated with an 18% higher AR risk [OR (95%CI) = 1.18 (1.01–1.38)], though sensitivity analysis indicated the results were influenced by individual studies. There were no significant links between atmospheric pressure, wind speed and AR (P > 0.05). Additionally, no obvious publication bias was detected in this study. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature and precipitation may increase the risk of AR, while humidity has a protective effect, with the effects varying across climate zones, income levels, study quality and outcome type. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-26078-6.