Abstract
BACKGROUND: In January 2024, the flat consumption tax on non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands was increased from €8.83 per 100 l to €26.13 per 100 l. In various countries tiered taxes have been implemented. This study aims to assess the impact of flat and tiered taxes on sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from these beverages in the Netherlands for the year 2025. METHODS: For 2025, sales of non-alcoholic beverages (in litres) and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages (in kilograms) were estimated for six scenarios: (i) the previous lower-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€8.83 per 100 l) (reference); (ii) the current higher-rate non-alcoholic beverage tax (€26.13 per 100 l); and (iii) four possible tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxes based on the sugar content of the beverages. Model-based analyses were performed to estimate the non-alcohol beverages sales, using supermarket transaction data and taking into account autonomous growth and inflation. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of elasticity and product reformulation. RESULTS: Non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes in 2025 were estimated at 2,688.4 million litres for the lower-rate tax scenario, 2,304.9 million litres for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 1,982.0-2,060.7 million litres for the tiered tax scenarios. Sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in 2025 were 136.8 million kilograms for the lower-rate tax scenario, 117.8 million kilograms for the higher-rate tax scenario, and 96.5-100.2 million kilograms for the tiered tax scenarios. The higher-rate tax scenario was estimated to decrease non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 14.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 13.9% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario. The tiered tax scenarios decreased non-alcoholic beverage sales volumes by 23.4-26.3% and sales of sugar from non-alcoholic beverages by 26.7%-29.5% compared with the lower-rate tax scenario. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of tiered non-alcoholic beverage taxation could substantially decrease sales of non-alcoholic beverages and sugar from non-alcoholic beverages in the Netherlands, exceeding the impact of the flat consumption tax increase, and thereby potentially improving population health.