Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) served as a global framework to promote health, well-being, and sustainable development. Among these, health indicators such as maternal mortality, under-five mortality, and neonatal mortality played a pivotal role in determining SDG performance, particularly in developing contexts such as the Turkic Republics. AIM: This research investigates, through empirical analysis, how major health-related indicators have shaped overall Sustainable Development Goal performance in six Turkic Republics—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Türkiye, and Uzbekistan—over the period 2000–2020. METHODS: Using panel data techniques combined with econometric modeling, the study explored the dynamic interactions between selected health indicators and SDG scores. The independent variables comprised maternal mortality, under-five mortality, neonatal mortality, educational attainment, and health expenditure, while the dependent variable was the aggregate SDG score. Granger causality tests were applied to detect directional relationships, and variance decomposition (FEVD) was used to evaluate long-run equilibrium patterns and the explanatory contribution of each factor. RESULTS: The findings demonstrate that maternal mortality (− 0.042) and under-five mortality (− 0.157) exerted significant negative effects on SDG scores, implying that elevated mortality rates hinder sustainable development progress. Educational attainment showed a significant positive coefficient (0.028), reinforcing its pivotal role in enhancing SDG achievements. By contrast, neonatal mortality and health expenditure exhibited no statistically significant influence on the SDG score. FEVD analysis further revealed that, by the tenth forecast period, maternal mortality accounted for 6.89% and under-five mortality for 8.65% of the forecast error variance in the SDG score, highlighting their persistent and measurable impact over time. CONCLUSIONS: The study underscores that social determinants—particularly health and education—are central to advancing sustainable development outcomes. Strengthening maternal and child health systems, alongside expanding access to quality education, emerges as a critical strategy for accelerating SDG progress across the region.