Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite the inclusion of one dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), mumps cases and outbreaks continue to occur. The objective of this study is to explore the epidemiologic pattern of mumps in Changzhou from 2005 to 2023 and to predict the future trend of mumps. METHODS: A Joinpoint regression model was employed to ascertain the temporal trends in mumps prevalence. To interpret the age, period, and cohort effects on mumps prevalence, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was employed. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to project the future prevalence rate from 2024 to 2033. RESULTS: One join-point was identified, with an upward trend from 2005 to 2012 (APC = 13.880) and a downward trend from 2012 to 2023 (APC = -8.262). The peak age-specific prevalence rate occurred at five to six years of age. From 2011 to 2013, the prevalence of mumps was found to be significantly elevated. In the cohort born between 2005 and 2010, the risk of mumps remained stable, while Subsequent birth cohorts exhibited fluctuating and increasing trends. The BAPC model predicted a gradual decline in prevalence rate over the next 10 years with the two-dose MMR vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The age-specific prevalence rate of mumps among children aged 1-9 years in Changzhou has not declined significantly, and the efficacy of the single-dose MMR vaccine is limited. This necessitates the timely optimization of the immunization strategy.