Burdens of sense organ diseases across global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021 and projections for 2050

1990年至2021年全球、区域和国家层面感觉器官疾病负担及2050年预测

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Sensory organ diseases (SOD) pose a considerable challenge to global health. This study analyzed the burden of SOD from 1990 to 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. METHODS: We analyzed prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates using Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models to separate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Health inequalities were evaluated through the slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (CI). Additionally, we identified risk factors influencing DALYs and projected future disease burden trends for 2022 to 2051 using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. RESULTS: In 2021, the global prevalent cases of SOD reached 2,386,160,888 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2,207,871,226 to 2,591,000,614), with 77,327,293 DALYs cases (95% UI: 53,419,192 to 107,972,583). Age-related hearing loss was the most common condition, accounting for 1,545,690,283 prevalent cases (95% UI: 1,480,358,023 to 1,618,714,974) and 44,449,944 DALYs cases (95% UI: 30,689,648 to 62,029,878). The highest age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) for blindness and vision loss were observed in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. DALYs attributable to high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index (BMI) increased significantly from 903,991 to 97,878 in 1990 to 1,555,976 and 229,558 in 2021, respectively. Health inequality analysis revealed a reduction in both SII and CI for SOD from 1990 to 2021, indicating an improvement in health inequality. Future projections indicate that from 2022 to 2051, ASPR for SOD will continue to increase, with the ASPR of blindness and vision loss increasing by about 17.78%. While age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) are expected to stabilize, with the ASDR of age-related and other hearing losses is expected to rise by approximately 0.67%. CONCLUSION: The burden of SOD is high and unevenly distributed. Increasing prevalence and DALYs highlight the need for targeted interventions. Future efforts should focus on risk mitigation and reducing health inequalities.

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