Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively evaluate the global, regional, and national burden of infective endocarditis (IE) from 2010 to 2021, and to project future trends. METHODS: This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Statistical methods, including joinpoint regression and the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, were employed to analyze the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IE, stratified by gender, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). RESULT: From 2010 to 2021, the global prevalence of IE increased by 40.1%, with a total of 421,667 cases reported in 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) rose from 4.7 per 100,000 to 5.3 per 100,000. Although the number of deaths increased by 23.01% and DALYs rose by 13.26%, both the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate exhibited slight declines. Significant regional disparities in ASPR were observed, with an overall increase correlated with higher SDI levels. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in ASPR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs rate during this period was 0.8 (0.6, 1.0), -1.1 (-1.7, -0.5), and -1.3 (-1.9, -0.7), respectively. Notably, predictions from the ARIMA model indicate that the ASPR for men is expected to continue rising over the next five years, while a decline is anticipated for women; however, both genders are projected to experience a decrease in ASDR. CONCLUSION: Over the past decade, the ASPR of IE has been on a gradual increase, while the ASDR and the age-standardized DALY rate have slightly decreased. It is indicated that some progress has been achieved in the global disease management and treatment effectiveness of IE. Based on the increasing prevalence rate and the relatively high mortality rate, the burden of IE globally will still remain a major public health challenge in the future.