Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To identify the cost-effectiveness of four policy options related to folic acid supplements after considering the side effects of masking vitamin B12 (B12) deficiency in primary stroke prevention for hypertensive patients in China. STUDY DESIGN: A cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: Four policies were considered: Policy A, Do nothing to address folate status in hypertensive patients at risk for stroke; Policy B, Folate supplementation without pre-screening for vitamin B12 deficiency; Policy C, Folate supplementation with pre-screening all patients for B12 deficiency and add B12 supplements if B12 is deficient; and Policy D, Folate supplementation only for those whose folate is deficient, pre-screen all patients for both B12 and folate deficiencies and add B12 supplements if B12 is deficient. A decision tree with a five-year period of intervention based on the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT) from the Chinese healthcare system perspective estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for Policy B, Policy C and Policy D vs. Policy A. RESULTS: At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of 3 times the national GDP per capita ($38,198), Policy B was not cost-effective compared to Policy A, with an ICER of $47,968 per QALY due to QALYs lost introduced by the delayed diagnosis of B12 deficiency and the potentially underestimated costs associated with treating neuropathy. However, Policy C and Policy D were cost-effective compared to Policy A, with an ICER of $32,615 and $20,287 per QALY, respectively. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that there would be a 72.7% and 83.5% chance that the additional cost of Policy C and Policy D, compared with Policy A, was at or below the WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Folate supplementation with integrated screening for B12 and folate deficiencies is considered the most cost-effective strategy for primary stroke prevention in hypertensive elderly patients in China. Future research should focus on advancing precision medicine to assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of nationwide implementation across diverse sub-populations within the context of integrated screening, ensuring efficient and tailored public nutrition strategy delivery.