Abstract
BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between cigarette smoking, smoking cessation and the trajectory of cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM), and further to examine the association of age at smoking initiation and smoking cessation with CMM. METHODS: This study included 298,984 UK Biobank participants without cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) (including type 2 diabetes, coronary heart diseases, stroke, and hypertension) at baseline. Smoking status was categorized into former, current, and never smokers, with age at smoking initiation and smoking cessation as a proxy for current and former smokers. The multi-state model was performed to evaluate the association between cigarette smoking, smoking cessation and CMM. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.2 years, 59,193 participants developed first cardiometabolic disease (FCMD), 14,090 further developed CMM, and 16,487 died. Compared to former smokers, current smokers had higher risk at all transitions, with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.59 (1.55 ∼ 1.63) vs. 1.18 (1.16 ∼ 1.21) (P = 1.48 × 10(- 118)) from health to FCMD, 1.40 (1.33 ∼ 1.47) vs. 1.09 (1.05 ∼ 1.14) (P = 1.50 × 10(- 18)) from FCMD to CMM, and 2.87 (2.72 ∼ 3.03) vs. 1.38 (1.32 ∼ 1.45) (P < 0.001) from health, 2.16 (1.98 ∼ 2.35) vs. 1.25 (1.16 ∼ 1.34) (P = 1.18 × 10(- 46)) from FCMD, 2.02 (1.79 ∼ 2.28) vs. 1.22 (1.09 ∼ 1.35) (P = 3.93 × 10(- 17)) from CMM to death; whereas quitting smoking reduced the risk attributed to cigarette smoking by approximately 76.5% across all transitions. Reduced risks of smoking cessation were also identified when age at quitting smoking was used as a proxy for former smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Cigarette smoking was associated with a higher risk of CMM across all transitions; however, smoking cessation, especially before the age of 35, was associated with a significant decrease in CMM risk attributed to cigarette smoking.