Abstract
BACKGROUND: Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination has been a crucial strategy for mitigating transmission and disease severity. However, vaccine-effectiveness may be influenced by various factors, including booster vaccination, as well as personal factors such as age, sex, BMI, smoking, and comorbidities. To investigate the potential effects of these factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease severity, we analyzed data from the third round of the Cologne Corona Surveillance (CoCoS) project, a large cross-sectional survey. METHODS: The study was conducted mid-February to mid-March 2022 in Cologne, Germany. A random sample of 10,000 residents aged 18 years and older were invited to participate in an online survey. Information on participants' demographics (age, sex), SARS-CoV-2 infections, vaccination status, smoking, and preexisting medical conditions were collected. The outcomes of the study were: (1) the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection despite vaccination (breakthrough infection) and (2) the occurrence of moderate-to-severe disease as a result of a breakthrough infection. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to investigate possible associations between the presence/absence of booster vaccination, personal factors and the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Associations with moderate-to-severe infection were analyzed using the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model. RESULTS: A sample of 2,991 residents responded to the questionnaire. A total of 2,623 primary immunized participants were included in the analysis of breakthrough infection and 2,618 in the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection severity after exclusions due to incomplete data. The multivariable results show that booster vaccination (HR = 0.613, 95%CI 0.415-0.823) and older age (HR = 0.974, 95%CI 0.966-0.981) were associated with a reduced hazard of breakthrough infection. Regarding the severity of breakthrough infection, older age was associated with a lower risk of moderate-to-severe breakthrough infection (HR = 0.962, 95%CI0.949-0.977). Female sex (HR = 2.570, 95%CI1.435-4.603), smoking (HR = 1.965, 95%CI1.147-3.367) and the presence of chronic lung disease (HR = 2.826, 95%CI1.465-5.450) were associated with an increased hazard of moderate-to-severe breakthrough infection. CONCLUSION: The results provide a first indication of which factors may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection and moderate-to-severe course of infection despite vaccination. However, the retrospective nature of the study and risk of bias in the reporting of breakthrough infection severity limit the strength of the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046, Registered on 25 February 2021.