Abstract
BACKGROUND: The association of changes in waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and weight-adjusted-waist index (WWI) with subsequent risk of multimorbidity remains unclear among older Chinese adults. Therefore, we aimed to assess this association by utilizing data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). METHODS: Our study was based on the 2011/2012 wave of the CLHLS whose follow-up surveys were conducted in 2014 and 2017/2018. A total of 2900 participants aged 65 and above at baseline were enrolled. WC, WHtR, and WWI were calculated from measured height, weight, and waist circumference. Multimorbidity refers to the coexistence of two or more of 18 chronic diseases. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) to evaluate the effect of three-year changes in WC, WHtR, and WWI on the risk of multimorbidity. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up time of 4.2 (2.0) years, 906 multimorbidity cases were identified. Compared to participants in the persistently low WC group, those in the WC gain group and the persistently high WC group had a higher multimorbidity risk with adjusted HRs (95%CI) of 1.23 (1.01-1.50) and 1.34(1.14-1.58), respectively. Participants in the WHtR gain group and the persistently high WHtR group also had higher risks of multimorbidity with HRs (95%CI) of 1.35 (1.08-1.67) and 1.27 (1.05-1.53), respectively, relative to the persistently low WHtR group. Compared to the persistently low WWI group, those in the WWI loss group had a lower risk of multimorbidity with HRs (95%CI) of 0.80 (0.66-0.98). For every standard deviation increase in WC, WHtR, and WWI over three years, the risk of multimorbidity was higher by 12% (95%CI: 1.05-1.19), 13% (95%CI: 1.06-1.20), and 12% (95%CI: 1.05-1.20), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Associations of changes in WC, WHtR and WWI with multimorbidity are significant among older Chinese adults. The findings highlight the importance of evaluating changes in WC, WHtR, and WWI in screening and prevention of multimorbidity in older adults.