Abstract
BACKGROUND: AIDS remains a leading cause of disease burden and mortality worldwide. While traditional research focused on individual risk factors, recent studies emphasize the role of social structures-demographic changes and socioeconomic disparities-in driving spatiotemporal variations in AIDS. This study examines the spatiotemporal distribution of AIDS in Mainland China from 2006 to 2022, analyzing the influence of socioeconomic factors on regional incidence, aiming to inform effective AIDS prevention strategies. METHOD: Using AIDS incidence data from 31 Chinese provinces (2006-2022), the study visualizes spatiotemporal trends through incidence rate maps. Spatial autocorrelation analysis identifies clustering patterns, and principal component analysis groups socioeconomic indicators into four dimensions. Kernel density estimation illustrates incidence changes, while Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression quantifies the spatial effects of development factors on AIDS transmission, highlighting how regional characteristics amplify transmission risks. RESULTS: The incidence rate of AIDS in Mainland China increased from 0.51 to 3.69 per 100,000 population between 2006 and 2022, with high-burden clusters mainly in central and western regions. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed significant clustering patterns (P < 0.05), peaking in 2020 (Moran's I = 0.449). Kernel density estimation revealed rising national incidence trends with regional disparities. Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis (GWPCA) identified four key dimensions-economic development, healthcare capacity, transportation, and education-while confirming no multicollinearity. Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) revealed that transportation infrastructure and healthcare capacity were positively associated with AIDS incidence, particularly in the west, while economic development and education had negative correlations, especially in less-developed western regions. CONCLUSION: This study reveals spatiotemporal patterns of AIDS distribution in Mainland China and identifies key socioeconomic factors driving these patterns. The incidence rate has steadily increased, with notable regional disparities. Socioeconomic factors significantly influence disease transmission. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions and tailored public health strategies in high-risk areas.