Higher levels of cell-associated HIV-1 RNA transcripts predict risk of viral blips: implications for clinical management and cure research

We hypothesized that high levels of cell-associated HIV-1 RNA transcripts (CA-HIV-RNA) led to an increased chance of subsequent viremic blips. In a prospective study, we followed 61 virally suppressed participants for four years. Baseline log10 CA-HIV-RNA was strongly associated with future blip in unadjusted [odds ratio (OR) 3.2, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 2.1-5.1, P < 0.0001] and adjusted models. A threshold of more than 91 copies/106 cells predicted blips with 71% sensitivity and 67% specificity (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79).