Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Novel urinary biomarkers reflecting kidney tubule health are associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk in persons living with HIV. However, it is unknown whether these biomarkers provide mechanistic insight into the associations between clinical risk factors for CKD and subsequent CKD risk. METHODS: Among 636 women living with HIV in the Women's Interagency HIV Study with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 , we used a counterfactual approach to causal mediation analysis to evaluate the extent to which systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), hemoglobin a1c (Hba1c) and serum albumin associations with incident CKD were mediated by eight urine proteins. These biomarkers reflect proximal tubular reabsorptive dysfunction (α1-microglobulin [a1m], β2-microglobulin, trefoil factor 3); tubular injury (interleukin 18 [IL-18], kidney injury molecule 1 [KIM-1]); kidney repair (epidermal growth factor); tubular reserve (uromodulin); and glomerular injury (urinary albumin). Incident CKD was defined as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 measured at two consecutive 6-month visits with an average annual eGFR decline ≥3% per year. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7 years, 11% developed CKD. Urinary albumin and KIM-1 mediated 32% (95% CI: 13.4%, 76.6%) and 23% (6.9%, 60.7%) of the association between SBP and incident CKD, respectively; and 19% (5.1%, 42.3%) and 22% (8.1%, 45.7%) of the association between DBP and incident CKD, respectively. Urinary albumin, α1m, and IL-18 were significant mediators of the association between Hba1c and incident CKD. None of the eight biomarkers mediated the association between serum albumin and incident CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Among women living with HIV, several urinary biomarkers reflecting distinct dimensions of kidney health may partially explain the associations between SBP, DBP, and Hba1c and subsequent CKD risk.