Abstract
STUDY QUESTION: Can women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) following in vitro fertilization (IVF) be risk-stratified regarding the subsequent need for medical intervention, based on their demographic characteristics and the results of serum biochemistry at the initial visit? SUMMARY ANSWER: The ratio of serum hCG to number of days from conception (hCG/C) or the initial serum hCG level at ≥5 weeks' gestation could be used to estimate the risk of women presenting with PUL following IVF and needing medical intervention during their follow-up. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: In women with uncertain conception dates presenting with PUL, a single serum hCG measurement cannot be used to predict the final pregnancy outcomes, thus, serial levels are mandatory to establish a correct diagnosis. Serum progesterone levels can help to risk-stratify women at their initial visit but are not accurate in those taking progesterone supplementation, such as women pregnant following IVF. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This was a retrospective study carried out at two specialist early pregnancy assessment units between May 2008 and January 2021. A total of 224 women met the criteria for inclusion, but 14 women did not complete the follow-up and were excluded from the study. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We selected women who had an IVF pregnancy and presented with PUL at ≥5 weeks' gestation. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: A total of 30/210 (14.0%, 95% CI 9.9-19.8) women initially diagnosed with PUL required surgical intervention. The hCG/C was significantly higher in the group of women requiring an intervention compared to those who did not (P = 0.003), with an odds ratio of 3.65 (95% CI 1.49-8.89, P = 0.004). A hCG/C <4.0 was associated with a 1.9% risk of intervention, which accounted for 25.7% of the study population. A similar result was obtained by substituting hCG/C <4.0 with an initial hCG level <100 IU/l, which was associated with 2.0% risk of intervention, and accounted for 23.8% of the study population (P > 0.05). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: A limitation of our study is that it is retrospective in nature, and as such, we were reliant on existing data. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: A previous study in women with PUL after spontaneous conception found that a 2% intervention rate was considered low enough to eliminate the need for close follow-up and serial blood tests. Using the same 2% cut-off, a quarter of women with PUL after IVF could also avoid attending for further visits and investigations. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funding was required for this study. No conflicts of interest are required to be declared. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.