Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop multiphase big-data-based prediction models of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) and a smartphone app for risk calculation and patients' self-monitoring. METHODS: Multiphase prediction models were developed from a retrospective cohort database of 21,566 women from January 2017 to December 2020 with controlled ovarian stimulation (COS). There were 17,445 women included in the final data analysis. Women were randomly assigned to either training cohort (n = 12,211) or validation cohort (n = 5,234). Their baseline clinical characteristics, COS-related characteristics, and embryo information were evaluated. The prediction models were divided into four phases: 1) prior to COS, 2) on the day of ovulation trigger, 3) after oocyte retrieval, and 4) prior to embryo transfer. The multiphase prediction models were built with stepwise regression and confirmed with LASSO regression. Internal validations were performed using the validation cohort and were assessed by discrimination and calibration, as well as clinical decision curves. A smartphone-based app "OHSS monitor" was constructed as part of the built-in app of the IVF-aid platform. The app had three modules, risk prediction module, symptom monitoring module, and treatment monitoring module. RESULTS: The multiphase prediction models were developed with acceptable distinguishing ability to identify OHSS at-risk patients. The C-statistics of the first, second, third, and fourth phases in the training cohort were 0.628 (95% CI 0.598-0.658), 0.715 (95% CI 0.688-0.742), 0.792 (95% CI 0.770-0.815), and 0.814 (95% CI 0.793-0.834), respectively. The calibration plot showed the agreement of predictive and observed risks of OHSS, especially at the third- and fourth-phase prediction models in both training and validation cohorts. The net clinical benefits of the multiphase prediction models were also confirmed with a clinical decision curve. A smartphone-based app was constructed as a risk calculator based on the multiphase prediction models, and also as a self-monitoring tool for patients at risk. CONCLUSIONS: We have built multiphase prediction models based on big data and constructed a user-friendly smartphone-based app for the personalized management of women at risk of moderate/severe OHSS. The multiphase prediction models and user-friendly app can be readily used in clinical practice for clinical decision-support and self-management of patients.