Abstract
BACKGROUND: Black adults have higher dementia risk than White adults. Whether tighter population-level blood pressure (BP) control reduces this disparity is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Estimate the impact of optimal BP treatment intensity on racial disparities in dementia. METHODS: A microsimulation study of US adults ≥18 across a life-time policy-planning horizon. BP treatment strategies were the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) protocol, the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC-8) recommendations, and usual care (non-intervention control). Outcomes were all-cause dementia, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), stroke, myocardial infarction, non-ASCVD death, global cognitive performance, and optimal brain health (being free of dementia, cognitive impairment, or stroke). Population-level and individual-level effects stratified by race were estimated. RESULTS: Optimal population-level implementation of a SPRINT-based BP treatment strategy, compared to usual care, would increase average annual dementia incidence in White, but not Black, adults (1% versus 0%), due to hypertensive individuals' greater survival, and reduce annual ASCVD events more in Black than White adults (13% versus 5%). Under a SPRINT-based strategy, individuals with hypertension gained more years lived without dementia, ASCVD, myocardial infarction, or stroke and more years lived in optimal brain health. A SPRINT-based strategy did not attenuate individual-level race disparities in outcomes, except stroke. Due to longer life expectancy, a SPRINT-based strategy did not substantially reduce lifetime dementia risk in either group. The JNC-8-based strategy had similar but smaller effects as the SPRINT-based strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that tighter population-level BP control would not reduce population-level disparities in dementia between US Black and White adults.