Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the changing trends in the burden of gout disease attributable to high body mass index (BMI) and impaired kidney function in China from 1990 to 2023, and predict the burden of gout disease attributable to high BMI and impaired kidney function in China from 2024 to 2035, to provide a scientific basis for gout prevention and control. METHODS: Based on the 2023 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data, this study analysed the characteristics of the burden of gout attributable to high BMI and impaired kidney function by gender and age group. It employed the Joinpoint regression model to examine trends in the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate and utilized the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden trend from 2024 to 2035. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized DALYs rate for gout attributable to high BMI in China increased (1990: 3.79 per 100 000, 95% UI: 2.15 per 100 000-6.24 per 100 000; 2023: 7.34 per 100 000, 95% UI: 4.22 per 100 000-11.39 per 100 000). Joinpoint analysis results showed that from 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized DALYs rate for gout attributable to high BMI in China exhibited an overall upward trend [average annual percent change (AAPC) for males=2.12%, 95% CI: 2.02%-2.22%; AAPC for females=1.92%, 95% CI: 1.79%-2.04%, both P<0.05]. For gout attributable to impaired kidney function, the age-standardized DALYs rate showed a slow overall increase in males, while the change in females was not significant (AAPC for males=0.36%, 95% CI: 0.27%-0.45%, P<0.05; AAPC for females=0.11%, 95% CI: -0.11%-0.33%). According to the ARIMA model predictions, by 2035, the age-standardized DALYs rates of gout attributable to high BMI in males and females and attributable to impaired kidney function in females were projected to stabilize at 10.85 per 100 000, 3.48 per 100 000, and 1.75 per 100 000, respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized DALYs rate of gout attributable to impaired kidney function in males was predicted to continue rising until 2035, reaching an estimated 5.98 per 100 000. CONCLUSION: The disease burden of gout associated with high BMI and impaired kidney function continues to worsen in China. The age-standardized DALYs rate for gout attributable to impaired kidney function in males is projected to continue rising until 2035. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve population-wide BMI management strategies and enhance medical support for patients with kidney diseases, with targeted interventions prioritized among specific groups such as middle-aged obese individuals and middle-aged and elderly patients with kidney diseases.