Abstract
BACKGROUND: Urticaria is a prevalent allergic skin condition that significantly affects patients' quality of life and mental health. The incidence and prevalence of urticaria vary across regions and time due to globalization and environmental changes. Understanding the global prevalence and impact of urticaria is essential for developing effective prevention and treatment strategies. OBJECTIVE: To assess the global burden of urticaria and project future trends, with a focus on its incidence, prevalence, and impact on public health. METHODS: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, this study assessed urticaria's incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2021. Data were analyzed by gender, age, and sociodemographic index. Joinpoint analysis was employed to evaluate global and regional trend changes, while ARIMA and ES models projected the burden to 2050. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2021, global urticaria incident cases rose 37.9% (84.87 to 117.01 million) and prevalent cases 39.4% (47.95 to 66.84 million). Age-standardized rates remained nearly stable (incidence: 1529.24 to 1533.71/100 000; prevalence: 865.85 to 868.18/100 000; EAPC: 0.01% for both). Central and Eastern Europe had the highest burden. Children <5 years showed the highest incidence (3262.05/100 000). Burden was consistently higher in women. Projections to 2050 indicate a further ~25% increase in cases, driven primarily by demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Urticaria's global burden is expected to rise, influenced by environmental changes, socioeconomic factors, and aging populations. Public health strategies should focus on environmental management, health education, resource optimization, and international cooperation to mitigate urticaria's impact.